The recent mild resurgence of the panel industry has created ripples in the capital market, especially with the rise of Mini LED TVs.
According to Jiubang Technology, television panel prices have surged dramatically since hitting a low last October, experiencing a four-fold increase. For example, the average price of a 55-inch TV panel, a popular size, reached $116 in early July, reflecting a 40% rise since the start of the year and a significant 45% increase compared to the $80 low point last October.
Jiubang Consulting predicts that global TV shipments in Q2 will reach 46.63 million units, marking a quarterly increase of 7.5% and a year-over-year rise of 2%. This marks the first time in seven quarters that shipments have grown by 2%. Moving into the second half of the year, the third quarter is expected to be a peak period for stockpiling, with TV shipments projected to increase by 13.5%, approximately 52.92 million units.
The surge in TV panel prices and quantities has positively influenced the market sentiment toward panel stocks.
On July 6th, Rainbow Shares (600707.SH) saw a notable increase in volume, kicking off an upward trend for panel stocks. Following this, TCL Technology (000100.SZ), BOE Technology (000725.SZ), and Shenzhen Tianma Microelectronics (000050.SZ) quickly joined the rally, reversing their previous downturn.
What is even more exciting for investors is the potential market reshuffle driven by the continuous volume growth of Mini LED TV products. Chinese panel manufacturers, led by TCL Technology, are heavily investing in Mini LED at a critical moment in the panel industry’s cyclical rebound.
Mini LED TVs: A Crucial Move in the Display Market
The financial publication Caijing Wujie has noted that manufacturers are striving to adopt new-generation display technologies to enhance their core competitiveness and resist the cyclical nature of the panel industry. Mini LED is seen as a vital “lifeline” in this counter-cyclical context.
However, developing Mini LED technology is not just a defensive strategy for domestic manufacturers. It has also become a key move in challenging the Japanese and South Korean dominance in OLED technology and winning the high-end display battle.
From this perspective, the critical question for investors in the panel industry is how well the “chess piece” of Mini LED is positioned. If Mini LED becomes the market mainstream, Mini LED concept stocks will be the first to benefit.
Mini LED: The New “King” of Display Panels
During the recent “618” promotion festival, dubbed the “quietest 618 in history,” no official sales data was released by any major platform. However, the television market told a different story.
During last year’s Double 11 (Singles’ Day), many companies offered large-screen TVs, especially those over 75 inches, at very affordable prices. TVs that traditionally sold for 7,000–9,000 yuan were priced below 5,000 yuan.
This price adjustment resulted from panel manufacturers adjusting their production rates starting last April and May, achieving a balance between supply and demand for LCD panels.
After several rounds of price wars, the market’s low-price competition reached a bottom, and with a potential cyclical panel price increase expected in the second half of this year, manufacturers are now focusing more on the mid-to-high-end market.
During the 618 events, Mini LED TVs became the backbone of the television market, with sales volume and revenue surging, making it one of the few television categories experiencing high growth.
Data from All VIEW CLOUD showed that during this year’s 618, retail volume in the Chinese color TV online market reached 2.499 million units, a year-over-year decrease of 12.9%, while retail revenue increased by 5.1% to 7.97 billion yuan.
Behind the “decrease in volume and increase in price” was the “iterative upgrade” driven by Mini LED TVs. Data showed that during this year’s 618, the retail revenue share of Mini LED TVs broke through 10%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%.
The 618 promotion served as a glimpse into the gradual rise of Mini LED TVs to center stage.
Growing Popularity of Mini LED Technology
Since Mini LED technology became commercially available in 2021, Mini LED backlit TVs have become the industry’s new favorite. Renowned TV brands such as Samsung, TCL Technology, Skyworth, Hisense, and Konka have joined the Mini LED race.
Last year, enthusiasm for Mini LED TVs remained high. In addition to original entrants releasing new models, Sharp launched its first Mini LED TV in June, further expanding the Mini LED camp among domestic and international brands.
According to All VIEW CLOUD, Mini LED TV sales reached 395,000 units in 2022, a 385.3% year-on-year increase. In 2023, the growth trend for Mini LED displays continues, and many businesses in the Mini LED project industry chain are beginning to “spring up.”
Several Mini LED projects have been listed as key projects for 2023 by provincial and municipal governments in China. For example, Anhui Province’s list includes the “BOE Mini LED (Hefei) Production Line Project” and the “6th Generation Touch Screen Production Line Mini LED Backlight Backplane Project.”
New developments in Mini LED projects include the official production of the Transcend Optoelectronics Mini LED Display Module Manufacturing Project, the Skyworth Wuhan Mini LED Display Technology Industrial Park Project targeting completion by June, and Vogtec’s investment in the Huichen Electronic Mini LED and High-end LCD Backlight Module Industrial Park Project.
These trends suggest that competition centered around Mini LED’s novel display technology has intensified across the industry, from manufacturers to consumers.
The OLED vs. Mini LED Showdown Nears a Conclusion
Before Mini LED, the display panel industry underwent three technological iterations: cathode-ray tubes (CRTs), plasma display panels (PDPs), and liquid crystal displays (LCDs). Each iteration enhanced image quality through improvements in resolution, brightness, contrast ratio, and color gamut.
The evolution of display panels continues. OLED panels, known for their self-emissive technology, superior contrast, faster response times, lighter weight, and flexibility, emerged in 2012. By 2019, OLED was considered the future of display technology.
However, in this new wave of technological development, the spotlight has shifted to Mini LED. According to financial observers, this shift is due to two key factors: technological limitations and market promotion.
OLED has inherent flaws compared to Mini LED, giving Mini LED an edge in the market. While OLED technology was once seen as the future, it faces challenges in producing high-quality larger panels over 65 inches, making it more suitable for smaller screens like smartphones. In contrast, Mini LED backlighting is not restricted by panel size, allowing for larger TV formats with mature technology, controlled costs, and high-quality yields.
OLED has long struggled with screen burn-in issues. Tests by North American review firm RTINGS found that an OLED TV left on for 12 hours a day would show “burn-in” by the 102nd week. Despite efforts to resolve this, the problem has not been fully eliminated.
In comparison, Mini LED offers high image quality, low power consumption, and a long lifespan. The miniaturization of its lighting components allows for thinner, lighter designs that outperform OLED in brightness and afterimage.
Additionally, OLED’s self-emissive nature limits its peak brightness, making it less suitable for bright, spacious rooms. Mini LED, with its numerous backlight zones, provides more precise light control, ideal for HDR content that relies on dynamic intensity for depth enhancement.
Conversely, OLED’s market promotion has encountered setbacks. Over the past decade, the large-size OLED industry has faced numerous obstacles, including the ‘mask incident’ and issues with supply chain cooperation between China and South Korea, causing OLED to fade from public attention.
Meanwhile, Chinese companies have begun to shift their focus. For example, Hisense, now the second-largest seller of color TVs globally, has prioritized its ULED and laser technologies over OLED.
As a result, OLED’s global penetration rate for large-size panels remains at 10%, while in China, it is only 3%. Data shows that OLED TV sales dropped to 206,000 units in 2022, a 29.9% decrease from the previous year. In 2023, Mini LED display technology became the most popular product feature in both online and offline markets in Q1.
Mini LED Takes the Lead as OLED Struggles
OLED, once considered the forefront of display technology, is now showing signs of fatigue, potentially allowing Mini LED to overtake.
However, both OLED and the rising Mini LED are still seen as transitional technologies before the advent of Micro LED.
Micro LED technology is a fundamentally new path that overcomes the limitations of its predecessors while retaining their strengths. It offers high efficiency, brightness, reliability, fast response times, compact size, and energy efficiency, positioning it as the ultimate solution in display technology.
Yet, due to challenges in large-scale transfer processes, Micro LED products remain expensive. Samsung, the only company currently mass-producing and selling Micro LED TVs, debuted its 146-inch “The Wall” for $320,000. Even last year’s 101-inch model was priced at nearly $68,000.
This significant price gap makes Micro LED TVs inaccessible for most consumers, indicating that it will take time for Micro LED to become mainstream. The question remains: who will shape the next generation of technology before that happens?
A company and its supply chain must make strategic choices amid uncertain technologies and transform lab-based innovations into products that can be mass-produced at reasonable costs. This requires risk-taking, determination, and collaboration to overcome technical challenges.
This presents both an opportunity and a challenge for Chinese manufacturers.
China’s Strategic Moves in the Mini LED Market
BOE and TCL Technology, the two giants of China’s display panel industry, are crucial upstream suppliers to Chinese TV manufacturers and play a vital role in promoting Mini LED technology.
BOE began developing Mini LED products in 2016 and, in late 2020, established BOE Crystal Core Technology with a registered capital of $130 million to develop and manufacture Mini/Micro LED displays and solutions.
Around the same time, TCL Technology began investing in Mini LED technology, releasing the world’s first Mini LED backlight TV in 2018 and pushing for its widespread adoption.
Over the past five years, TCL Technology’s commitment to Mini LED has grown, and its TV product line has evolved through several iterations.
From mainstream models like the Q10G to high-end options like the Q10H, X11G, Q10G Pro, and QD-Mini LED TVs like the C12G and Q10H series, TCL Technology’s lineup now spans mid-range to high-end segments. During this year’s 618 JD Mini LED TV rankings, TCL’s TVs occupied eight of the top ten spots.
However, a new challenge has emerged. Starting in 2023, other brands like Sony, Changhong, Hisense, Xiaomi, and Panasonic have launched new Mini LED TVs, engaging in fierce competition over features like partition number, brightness, resolution, and price.
For most companies, Mini LED is one of many strategies. But for TCL Technology, the success and speed of Mini LED adoption represent a unique opportunity.
An industry insider noted that the biggest challenge in the modern electronics industry isn’t making things bigger or more unique but making them smaller, more common, and capable of mass production.
Today, the global TV market is experiencing sluggish growth, and the industry is predominantly saturated. The key barrier preventing further penetration of Mini LED TVs is price.
For TCL Technology, which positions itself as a “promoter and leader of Mini LED technology,” the critical factor will be whether it can spark a price war similar to that seen in the photovoltaic sector and make Mini LED products the first choice for consumers. If successful, Mini LED could capture a significant share of the market with the revival of economic activity and consumer spending.
The following article is from Caijing Wuji Author Xiao Tian
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