Global Market Share: Technological Leadership Opens Up Space for Chinese Brands
The iteration of Mini LED technology is reshaping the global TV industry landscape. Chinese leading brands are accelerating their penetration of the mid-to-high-end market, leveraging their first-mover advantage. In 2024, global shipment growth for TCL and Hisense outpaced the industry average, confirming the role of technology upgrades in driving brand internationalization. As the cost of Mini LED backlight modules enters a downward trend (due to economies of scale and yield improvements), Chinese brands’ dual advantages of technological premium and cost advantage are expected to continue breaking into international markets, boosting global market share in a structured manner. Even without the catalyst of major events in 2025, the accelerated replacement of traditional LCD and deeper penetration into the high-end OLED market will sustain alpha growth for Chinese enterprises.
Boost in Chinese Market Demand: Policies Catalyze Structural Upgrades
The trade-in policies serve as a growth engine for domestic TV sales in China. During the policy implementation period in 2024, retail sales in online and offline KA channels grew by +22% and +40% year-on-year (September to December), demonstrating the driving force of replacement demand. With the expansion of special government bond funds in 2025 and an increase in Mini LED penetration, a positive cycle is forming: policy subsidies drive demand, and technology upgrades raise average prices. As a result, the penetration rate of Mini LED is expected to continue rising, potentially driving the industry’s ASP (average selling price) up by 8%-10% year-on-year. Leading companies are using their technological reserves to build a product gradient, which is likely to continue boosting their market share in the mid-to-high-end market.
Profitability Improvement: Cost Pressures Ease + Value Revaluation
The narrowing of panel price fluctuations and product structure upgrades are creating a dual force driving profitability improvement. With mainland Chinese panel manufacturers holding over 70% market share, capacity control mechanisms have matured. We expect the fluctuation range of panel prices to continue narrowing in 2025 (the fluctuation was ±15% in 2024). In Mini LED backlight TVs, panel costs account for a smaller proportion compared to traditional LCD TVs, which helps to mitigate the cyclical nature of panel prices. Additionally, with the rising share of high-margin products like 8K and large-size screens, leading companies’ net profit margins are expected to continue improving. As operational quality improves, this will open the door for valuation revaluation.
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