The year 2024 has proven to be a challenging one for the display industry, with an overall decline in market value. Only a few companies have managed to maintain slight growth or hold steady.
The market competition has been fierce, with the phenomenon of “involution” (excessive competition) spreading from domestic markets to overseas markets. However, the emergence of MLED technology has led to direct confrontations between traditional LED display companies and emerging panel manufacturers, driving industry innovation and development.
As we enter 2025, the display industry faces two key trends worth noting from a macro perspective. First, the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have created uncertainty for the industry’s global expansion and prompted companies to reassess their cost structures. Second, the rapid development of AI technologies, such as Deepseek, is creating a storm that could reshape the entire industry.
These two factors will significantly influence the future development of the LED industry. In this article, we present five key predictions for 2025 regarding the technological trends and market performance of various segments in the display industry.
Prediction 1: COB Technology Will Enter a High-Growth Competitive Phase
The prediction that COB (Chip-on-Board) technology will experience a high-growth phase is backed by both market demand and advances in technology and industry chain maturity.
Looking back at 2024, COB has already been widely recognized as one of the industry’s key trends. It has entered the stage of large-scale application, with COB production capacity surpassing 50,000㎡/month, and shipments steadily increasing at 5mm pixel pitch. Currently, 16 companies are actively involved in COB production, with its market share accounting for almost 10%.
Although market demand continues to grow, the overall LED display industry’s total production capacity has already surpassed 200,000KK/month, well exceeding market demand. COB remains strong in terms of player numbers, capacity expansion, and pixel pitch penetration, with expectations for monthly production capacity to exceed 80,000㎡ in 2025. If this expansion is realized and continues, the market could face even more intense competition, potentially exacerbating the over-supply situation and leading to fiercer price competition.
Some questions and concerns have arisen within the industry: Is COB capacity becoming over-saturated this year? What capacity is necessary for healthy development?
From a company strategy perspective, the competitive range of COB has expanded beyond P1.2 to include P0.9 and P1.5, further increasing market share. However, the rapid rise of MiP (Micro-IC) technology could present challenges for COB as it tries to expand into the high-end market. Meanwhile, SMD manufacturers, with their solid technical foundation and market share, remain formidable competitors.
Prediction 2: MiP Technology Will Take Over the High-End Market
MiP technology has exceeded expectations and delivered surprising results for the LED display industry.
In Q4 2024, leading companies announced large-scale production and capacity planning, propelling MiP technology from product development to commercialization. By now, MiP has already been deployed in high-end markets that require exceptional image quality and fast response times, such as military command centers and Hollywood’s close-up filming.
The high-end market is focused on innovation and differentiation, with low price sensitivity. New technologies offering technical advantages fit this demand perfectly.
Looking ahead to 2025, with companies pushing forward through integrated efforts in chips, packaging, panels, and end products, we expect 5000-7000KK/month of capacity to be released in the industry. This will enable MiP technology to meet high-end market demand in the short term.
From a strategic perspective, MiP is currently focusing on high-end market niches, which will help improve its brand image in terms of innovation and quality. However, if it fails to quickly find larger applications or faces strong resistance from COB, it could be hindered by challenges in achieving economies of scale.
Nonetheless, the industry is steadily exploring MiP upgrade solutions (e.g., combining Micro-IC + MiP) to expand its market potential. Over the long term, MiP technology is poised to become a key innovation, with broad applications and scaling opportunities in the market.
Prediction 3: LED Movie Screens and All-in-One Displays Will Be the Two Major Growth Markets in 2025
LED Movie Screens Market:
With the success of Nezha 2 earning over ¥12 billion ($1.7 billion) at the box office, confidence in the movie industry has been boosted. Moreover, China’s 2025 economic plan to expand domestic demand will likely increase investment in the entertainment industry, benefiting the LED movie screen ecosystem.
Last year, LED movie screens were primarily used in high-end theaters, with over 100 installations in China. This number is expected to double this year. Additionally, major science museums in urban areas are becoming key deployment targets for LED movie screens, with companies like China Film Technology and Lopco already launching projects. However, full-scale development of the LED movie screen ecosystem is expected to be completed by 2026.
LED All-in-One Displays Market:
The LED all-in-one display market is price-driven. Although prices have been falling in recent years, growth has been limited by compatibility issues with interactive software and hardware. The integration of DeepSeek’s AI models is expected to resolve the limitations of interactive software development, reducing development costs and bringing the price of LED all-in-one displays to an industry consensus “sweet spot.”
We predict that LED all-in-one display shipments will continue to grow this year, with an estimated 1-1.5 million units (a 43% increase).
Prediction 4: AI-Powered LED Displays Will Drive Industry Upgrade
As hardware technology in the LED display sector becomes increasingly homogeneous, companies are struggling to build competitive advantages, and market pressure continues to intensify.
The most promising aspect of LED displays + AI lies in overcoming the limitations of software, thereby improving overall capabilities.
On the technological side, LED display manufacturers have established significant advantages in hardware fields such as chips, packaging, and drivers. However, challenges remain in software capabilities, including algorithms, system integration, and content creation, which limit product functionality and application scenarios.
The introduction of AI technologies, represented by DeepSeek’s large models, will significantly enhance product capabilities and solutions, boosting manufacturers’ competitiveness and facilitating industry-wide upgrades.
It is anticipated that AI-powered LED displays will become one of the key trends in LED display development, with early adopters gaining a market edge.
Prediction 5: Mini LED Backlight Will Enter a Period of Steady Recovery
In 2024, the “home appliance subsidies” policy was effective, with Mini LED backlight TVs reaching 8.2 million units shipped, a 100% increase from 2023. Mini LED technology has gained significant consumer awareness, marking the completion of market education.
As the subsidy policy continues into 2025, Mini LED TV sales will continue to rise, but at a slower pace. The 2024 policy has brought forward 2025’s sales potential, and the concentration of demand in the first two quarters may lead to consumer fatigue in the second half of the year.
Despite this, Mini LED backlight technology is entering a period of steady recovery and is evolving towards becoming a mainstream display technology. Its market penetration is expected to continue growing steadily in the future.
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