In 2024, Chinese TV brands continue to enhance their recognition among overseas consumers and expand their global market share. From Q1 to Q3, TCL and Hisense saw global shipments increase by +10.3% and +4.7% year-over-year, respectively, while the industry overall grew by only +2.2%. We believe that the high quality and innovation of Chinese TV products are gradually changing the stereotypes held by younger overseas consumers toward Chinese electronics. With faster iterations of TV products, Mini LED-backlit TVs are set to break through the conventional “value-for-money” tag and stand out in the crowded home appliance market. We also anticipate that the TV sector will experience improved profitability starting in 2025, as panel price pressures ease and China’s trade-in policies drive product upgrades.
Global Market: Chinese Brands’ Potential Still Vast, Display Technology Transformation Triggers New Changes
Every technological iteration in the TV industry significantly impacts the global market landscape. During the LCD TV boom, Korean brands like Samsung and LG significantly increased their global market share. Now, with the rise of Mini LED backlight technology, Chinese companies have taken the lead in entering this field. In 2024, Mini LED-backlit TVs have demonstrated strong competitiveness, with global shipments from companies like TCL and Hisense growing actively. As the Mini LED TV industry scales up, the cost of its components is expected to gradually decrease, further strengthening its competitive advantage. While 2025 may not see the same surge driven by major sports events, the advantages of Mini LED TVs will still contribute to the structural growth of Chinese brands. The superior price-to-performance ratio is likely to drive the global market share of Chinese brands even further.
China Market: Trade-In Policies Boost Domestic Sales Outlook
The Chinese TV market continues to benefit from trade-in policies. The market is following a progressive path of “policy-driven—structural upgrades—market optimization.” On the policy front, the effectiveness of trade-in programs is evident, with online and offline KA retail sales from September to December 2024 increasing by +12% and +30.5%, respectively. Additionally, the central government has amplified support for new energy policies, with a significant increase in special government bond funds for 2025. From an industrial perspective, energy efficiency upgrades are boosting the penetration of Mini LED-backlit TVs, driving a structural increase in industry average prices. In terms of market competition, leading companies are leveraging technological reserves and scale advantages, improving brand premiums and optimizing profit models. Industry concentration is expected to continue strengthening.
TV Panel Price Fluctuations Narrowing, Technological Advancements Help Improve Profitability
With Chinese mainland panel manufacturers dominating the market, panel price fluctuations are likely to narrow. In the first half of 2024, high panel prices squeezed the profit margins of terminal manufacturers. However, the accelerated penetration of Mini LED backlight technology, coupled with the upgrade of large-size products, has helped reduce the proportion of panel costs in overall expenses. As a result, the impact of panel price fluctuations on terminal profitability has weakened. We remain optimistic about the structural opportunities for the TV industry to evolve toward the mid-to-high-end market, with panel price pressures expected to ease in 2025. Currently, leading companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with manufacturers that possess refined operational capabilities likely to release better profits during the industry upgrade cycle.
Chinese TV Brands’ Global Competitiveness Continues to Improve, Attention Shifting to Leading Enterprises’ Profitability
Looking ahead to 2025, technological iterations present an opportunity for Chinese TV companies to deepen their advantages in global competition. As Chinese TV brands continue their marketing push and further integrate into overseas local channels, the value-for-money label for Chinese brands is expected to become even more ingrained. The upward trend in market share is likely to continue. The focus should shift to the profitability changes of individual companies within the sector, as panel pressures ease and product structure upgrades progress. We believe it is still worth paying attention to leading TV enterprises.
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